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As I recall, this happened in 2014, when Buddy Nix was still working as a special assistant. The Bills got off to a rousing 2-0 start and I picked them to beat the Chargers at home in the next game.
While walking by the administrative offices on Friday, I heard Nix call out to me in his distinctive southern twang: “Don’t go positive on us now, Sully! You’ll jinx us.”
The Bills got smoked by San Diego. They lost again the following week and Doug Marrone replaced EJ Manuel at quarterback with Kyle Orton.
Sorry for dredging up bad memories as the Bills get ready to start training camp as Super Bowl favorites. But I imagine some Buffalo fans channeled their inner Buddy Nix last summer when I picked the Bills to reach the Super Bowl. No! Don’t go there!
Rest easy, I’m leaning the other way this year. Sure, the Bills have earned their status as odds-on choice to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next February in Glendale, Arizona. It’s great to have the pressure that comes from being the favorite. It beats the heroic run to 7-9.
But I’m back to my default position as a professional skeptic. Someone has to do it. Judging by the gleeful mood among Buffalo fans, you’d think they were already lining up for the parade.
Everyone believes they would have won it last year if not for the inconvenient matter of the final 13 seconds of regulation in Kansas City. I guess the Bengals would have simply folded at the sight of Josh Allen in the AFC title game, and the Rams would have been no match in the Bowl itself.
Well, maybe it’s time for the Bills to actually get to the big game before people can pick them to win it. Certainly, there are good reasons to like them as the favorite.
They have an MVP candidate in Allen, who had one of the most remarkable two-game runs in playoff history in January. They have a defense that ranked first in the NFL and added a Hall of Fame pass rusher in Von Miller. They have a veteran offensive line, one of the best receiving groups in the league, a deep roster that has proven it can hold up in a crisis.
In a league that goes in cycles, they’re at the crest of an upward trend. This is supposed to be their year. But a lot must go right for a team to make the Super Bowl. Teams can unravel from one year to the next. No one knows that better than Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, who were part of a Carolina squad that went 15-1 one season and fell to 6-10 the next.
They’re not remotely capable of such a collapse. I expect them to go 12-5 and win the AFC East, then fall short of the Super Bowl again. A year ago, the Bills finished with a plus-194 point differential, best in the league. That’s the highest differential in NFL history for a team that lost six games in the regular season.
Fans tend to overlook the fact that there were some disheartening losses last season, or that there was legitimate concern about them simply making the playoffs when they lost at home to New England on an embarrassing Monday night in December and fell to 7-6.
Of course, Buffalo fans have always imagined the best in their heroes, even during the playoff drought. That’s what fans do. It’s the columnist’s job to be a skeptic, to have questions. Even a top contender goes into a season with burning questions. Here’s a half dozen on the Bills:
1. Will Josh Allen live up to the hype and play like an MVP?
He’s a rare, exciting talent and a leader. It’s natural to assume he’ll build on that incredible playoff performance. But he actually regressed some in the regular season, when he finished 16th in the NFL in passer rating.
Granted, Allen might be the most dynamic dual threat ever to play quarterback in the NFL. His running and ability to escape pressure make him a nightmare for opposing defenses. But he admits his ball placement could be better. The Bills were last in the league in average yards after catch, which is partly due to his receivers but also a reflection on his accuracy.
The standard is high when you’re the highest-paid player in team history and an MVP candidate. In a conference filled with gifted young quarterbacks, Allen needs to do more to separate himself.
2. How will Ken Dorsey do as the new offensive coordinator?
There’s enormous pressure on Dorsey, who takes over for Brian Daboll after three years as Allen’s quarterback coach. Allen and the players seem to love him, but Dorsey needs to find new, innovative ways to keep a formidable offense functioning at a high level.
The offensive coordinator is generally the most highly criticized man in town. There were reports that Daboll had fallen out with McDermott and would have left Buffalo even if he didn’t get the Giants head job. That makes it even more vital for Dorsey to have a seamless transition.
3. Is the defense as good as its record?
Well, they finished first in points and yards against. The pass defense was easily the best in the NFL in the key categories. But they faced a sorry cast of opposing quarterbacks. Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinecke, Mike White, Trevor Siemien and Cam Newton aren’t even starting in the league now. Only two of their 11 wins came against QBs who ranked in the top half of the NFL in rating.
Leslie Frazier admits they need to generate more big plays with their pass rush. Miller will surely help. But they need to be stronger against the run than they were at times. Before last season, the defensive players came to camp angry about the way the season ended against K.C. They must be even more motivated after their shabby play at Arrowhead once again in last year’s division round.
4. Can they handle being a Super Bowl favorite?
The bar is higher, and the schedule reflects that. Buffalo’s first-place schedule includes road games against both Super Bowl teams — the champion Rams in the Thursday opener and the Bengals in a Jan. 2 Monday nighter. They also play at the Ravens and Chiefs, plus a Sunday night home game against the Packers on Oct. 30 after their bye week.
Suffice it to say, the lineup of opposing quarterbacks will be a lot tougher this year. The defense could play just as well and fall back in the league statistics. Allen has become a must-watch player. He has to avoid trying to do too much, which has been an issue at times in the past. The Bills have responded well to the national spotlight in recent years, so there’s cause for optimism.
5. Will contract issues affect the team chemistry?
The Bills have enjoyed great chemistry under McDermott. Allen has been an ideal leader, a team guy who is willing to accept criticism and responsibility. But money can divide any team. Jordan Poyer, a Pro Bowl safety and team leader, remains unsigned past this season. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds goes into the final year of his rookie deal, with no progress on an extension. At the very least, Beane needs to get Poyer signed to make it clear that a top player gets compensated for performance.
6. Is Sean McDermott a Super Bowl head coach?
McDermott will insist that the meltdown in K.C. is old news. But the memory of those 13 seconds in the loss to the Chiefs will linger. As Tyler Dunne chronicled on his website Go Long, there were players and other team employees who were disappointed with McDermott’s lack of command in the clutch, then his weak explanation and perceived lack of accountability afterwards.
The Bills could go 17-0 and I still would have doubts about a McDermott team in the biggest games. He’s done a terrific job of turning around the culture in Buffalo. But in three straight playoff exits, he was guilty of some curious coaching in the most crucial moments. If the Bills falter in his sixth year, it will be fair to wonder if he’s the right coach to take Allen to the next level.
Jerry Sullivan is a sports columnist with over 30 years experience in Western New York. Follow him on Twitter @ByJerrySullivan or respond via email at scoreboard@gnnewspaper.com.
Jerry Sullivan is a sports columnist with over 30 years experience in Western New York. Follow him on Twitter @ByJerrySullivan or respond via email at scoreboard@gnnewspaper.com.
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